Validating the Earlier Analyses and Forecasting on Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs)

Abstract

Newly Emerging Science and Technologies (NESTs) bring numerous innovation opportunities and challenges. At the same time, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTs pose special challenges to traditional technology forecasting tools. Dye-Sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), a promising third-generation photovoltaic technology, can add functionality and lower costs, enhancing the value proposition of solar power generation in the early years of the 21st century. We have analyzed DSSCs R&D activity patterns and trends through a series of studies in the past several years, and come to realize the validation analyses is useful to improve the Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) policy processes. Yet, rarely do we revisit forecasts or projections to ascertain how well they fared. One of our aim is to check accuracy, to gain some sense of how valid those studies were and whether they proved useful to others in some ways. Additionally, we want to assess the degree to which such future-oriented analyses did or did not make good use of available information. Moreover, we seek indications of what information is key, and how Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) processes can better utilize such information.