Validating DayCent-CR for cropland soil carbon offset reporting at a national scale

Abstract

Regenerative soil management practices have been shown to increase soil organic carbon in cropland previously under conventional management, and farmers that adopt regenerative practices could be eligible to participate in carbon offset programs. Due to the high cost of soil sampling at large scales, project developers of agricultural carbon offset programs may employ a hybrid measurement and modeling approach to SOC quantification. While biogeochemical models allow for carbon crediting to occur on larger scales than soil sampling alone would allow, any model used must be unbiased and shown to adequately predict SOC changes, with known uncertainty, across the crops, practice changes, and geographies of interest. The “credit-ready” version of the DayCent ecosystem model, DayCent-CR, was evaluated for performance across 14 combinations of crops and practice categories. Model calibration and validation was performed with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach using k-fold cross validation and 668 SOC stock change measurements from 41 agricultural research sites. Overall model performance met the guidelines established by Climate Action Reserve’s Soil Enrichment Protocol: ≥90% of model prediction intervals covered the measured value, and mean bias in all categories was less than pooled measurement uncertainty. Importantly, posterior distributions of DayCent-CR parameters and variance components enable the calculation of variance, which can then be used to calculate an uncertainty deduction that is applied to overall project credits to ensure conservatism. The calibrated model parameters are therefore valid for use in crediting programs within the domain of the validation dataset.