Validating APSIM for the Northern Territory of Australia: An environment with challenging weather and soils

Abstract

AbstractExtreme weather (high rainfall and temperatures) and challenging soils are sources of uncertainties in the use of current crop models that have been developed for more favorable environments. This may limit their applicability to guide and support decision making for the development of new agricultural regions in tropical environments. We evaluated the accuracy of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) framework in representing yield and development of a range of crops across multiple locations in the Northern Territory of Australia, a tropical region with large potential for agricultural development. Observations of yield, biomass, and phenology for a range of crops from 28 experiments undertaken at three locations were compiled and used to develop simulations undertaken using APSIM version 7.10. Model performance varied with coefficients of determination and concordance correlation coefficients ranging from 0.36 to 0.98 and 0.37 to 0.93, respectively. Instances where model performance was less than ideal were associated with conditions presenting a limited number of observed values. Deviations by the model from yield observations were larger for situations with high‐yielding crops and low daily maximum temperatures during vegetative growth stages. Deviations in phenology were larger for conditions associated with water and N stress. APSIM was capable of representing the yield, biomass, and development of cereal and pulse crops and can be used with confidence to assist the expansion of agriculture in tropical environments such as the Northern Territory of Australia.