Validated Nomogram Predicting Clinical Outcome after Radiofrequency Ablation in the Treatment of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Abstract

Objective To establish a prediction model for the short-term efficacy of percutaneous ultrasound-guided radiofrequency ablation(RFA)in the treatment of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma(PTMC). Methods We retrospectively analyzed the preoperative and follow-up data of 159 patients with PTMC who underwent percutaneous ultrasound-guided RFA treatment in the Department of Ultrasound,the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January to December in 2018.The association with 12-month tumor status(end event)was evaluated by multivariate logistic regression model.A nomogram was built to predict the risk of tumors which did not disappear completely within 12 months after RFA. Results We found that gender(P=0.017),age(P=0.047),and calcification(P=0.049)were the strongest predictors for establishing the model.The tumor maximum diameter and RFA energy were the secondary relevant factors for establishing the model.The constructed model showed good performance in both training cohort(AUC=0.762)and validation cohort(AUC=0.740). Conclusion A quantitative model was established for predicting the tumor status within one year after treatment of PTMC by RFA,which can accurately predict the short-term efficacy of RFA and provide a clinical basis for explaining the recovery results of patients.