Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants.

Abstract

When vaccine supply is limited but population immunization urgent, the allocation of the available doses needs to be carefully considered. One aspect of dose allocation is the time interval between the first and the second injections in two-dose vaccines. By stretching this interval, more individuals can be vaccinated with the first dose more quickly, which can be beneficial in reducing case numbers, provided a single dose is sufficiently effective. On the other hand, there has been concern that intermediate levels of immunity in partially vaccinated individuals may favour the evolution of vaccine escape mutants. In that case, a large fraction of half-vaccinated individuals would pose a risk—but only if they encounter the virus. This raises the question whether there is a conflict between reducing the burden and the risk of vaccine escape evolution or not. We develop an SIR-type model to assess the population-level effects of the timing of the second dose. Trade-offs can occur both if vaccine escape evolution is more likely or if it is less likely in half-vaccinated than in unvaccinated individuals. Their presence or absence depends on the efficacies for susceptibility and transmissibility elicited by a single dose.