Vaccination and vector control effect on dengue virus transmission dynamics: Modelling and simulation

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a two-strain compartmental dengue model with variable humans and mosquitoes populations sizes. The model incorporates two control measures: Dengvaxia vaccine and insecticide (adulticide) to forecast the transmission and effective control strategy for dengue in Madeira Island if there is a new outbreak with a different virus serotype after the first outbreak in 2012. The basic reproduction number, R 0 = max { R 01 , R 0 j } , associated with the model is computed using the next generation matrix operator. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable when both R 01 , R 0 j 1 , but unstable otherwise. The global asymptotic stability of the model is derived using the comparison theorem. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the model parameters. The results of the analysis show that mosquito biting and death rates are the most sensitive parameters. Three strategies: the use of Dengvaxia vaccine only, the use of adulticide only, and the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide, are considered for the control implementation under two scenarios (less and more aggressive cases). The numerical results show that a strategy which is based on Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide is the most effective strategy for controlling dengue disease transmission in both scenarios among the considered strategies.