Vacant land, flood exposure, and urbanization: Examining land cover change in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area

Abstract

The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing areas in the U.S. As the urbanization process continues in DFW, existing greenfields are being developed and more developments appear near floodplains. This research examines the relationships between existing vacant land and the urbanization process by analyzing the land cover change between 2011 and 2016 in and around current floodplains in the DFW metro area. The major focus lies in three questions: 1) are flood-prone areas in DFW more likely to experience new development? 2) does existing vacant land in flood-prone areas bring new development activities? and 3) is the urbanization process associated with neighborhood change? Three logistic regression models were constructed to examine if existing vacant land can predict new development activities – with subgroups of different neighborhood socioeconomic status and by the level of flood hazard exposure. The results suggest that, in the DFW area, floodable areas are experiencing more development, and existing vacancies are a trigger only when vacancies are not clustered and when flood exposure is low. A heterogeneous pattern across different neighborhood profiles was found as areas with high flood exposure are likely to experience more large-scale development activities only for the low-income groups. This study suggests city planners pay attention to citywide vacant properties as they could either predict or detour potential developments. At the same time, areas with a close proximity to floodplains require more attention for the neighborhood socioeconomic status than existing vacant land uses.