Abstract
Balancing supply and demand in Nature-based Recreation (NbR) has the potential to yield co-benefits across multiple Ecosystem Services (ES), helping to make tourism activities more sustainable. However, a comprehensive understanding of supply-demand mismatches in NbR is challenging due to the complex interaction among various social, economic and ecological factors. This paper investigates mismatches in NbR supply and demand to provide insights for informing spatial and regional planning to achieve sustainable tourism. To this end, the paper uses a wide range of indicators such as biophysical attributes, accessibility and social indicators to map and assess NbR supply and demand, followed by the application of spatial statistics to analyse supply-demand mismatches. Cluster analysis was performed based on the supply-demand relationship to identify a typology of NbR ES across the study area in the north of Iran. The paper proposes an innovative application of recreation ES bundles with potential implications for sustainable tourism in a region marked as a hot spot for tourism. The analysis generated a typology of five bundles of NbR ES with differing recreational opportunities. Bundles 1 and 2, characterized by a supply surplus and substantial ecological value, are suitable for NbR activities such as camping, hiking, climbing, and birdwatching. In contrast, bundle 4 and 5 associated with urban centres, experience a supply deficit, making them less suitable for NbR. Bundle 3, characterized by a mixture of natural and productive lands, plays an important role in maintaining a balanced supply-demand state. This region holds potential for diverse forms of tourism, including rural and agricultural recreation such as farm tours and farm life experiences. Based on findings, the paper provides valuable insights for spatial and regional planning by proposing targeted strategies to sustainably manage tourism activities.
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