Abstract
Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25–2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25–2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region.
Highlights
The results of numerous studies [1,2,3] show that cereal yields in West Africa will likely decline by 10% by 2050 due to climate change
The results show that all models are in agreement that the minimum and maximum temperatures in the Niger Basin will be higher in the future, relative to baseline
Analyses of climate change impacts consistently show that cereal yields may decrease by as much as 10% by the middle of this century in semi-arid West Africa
Summary
The results of numerous studies [1,2,3] show that cereal yields in West Africa will likely decline by 10% by 2050 due to climate change. The region’s population is on pace to double by 2050 [10,11], which will require a five-fold increase in food production just to keep pace [6,12] Despite such projections, studies investigating potential mitigation and adaptation options in the region have often reached surprisingly optimistic conclusions. Despite significant temperature increase (0.95 ◦ C) and unprecedented rainfall variability in semi-arid West Africa since 1960, farmers have managed to approximately double yields of several major crops (see supplementary Figure S2). Somewhat surprising given such promising results, the use of crop models for investigating climate change mitigation and adaptation options in West Africa remains limited.
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