Utilizing Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models to Promote Smoking Cessation: Two Randomized Controlled Trials

Abstract

The current project sought to examine whether delivery of lung cancer risk projections (calculated using the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] risk model) predicted follow-up smoking status. Two single-blinded randomized controlled trials. Stop Smoking Services in Liverpool (United Kingdom). Baseline current smokers (N = 297) and baseline recent former smokers (N = 216) were recruited. Participants allocated to intervention groups were provided with personalized lung cancer risk projections, calculated using the LLP risk model. Baseline and follow-up questionnaires explored sociodemographics, smoking behavior, and lung cancer risk perceptions. Bivariate analyses identified significant differences between randomization groups, and logistic regression models were developed to investigate the intervention effect on the outcome variables. Lung cancer risk projections were not found to predict follow-up smoking status in the trial of baseline current smokers; however, they did predict follow-up smoking status in the trial of baseline recent former smokers (odds ratio: 1.91; 95% confidence interval: 1.03-3.55). The current study suggests that lung cancer risk projections may help maintain abstinence among individuals who have quit smoking, but the results did not provide evidence to suggest that lung cancer risk projections motivate current smokers to quit.