Abstract
ABSTRACT Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a virus found predominantly east of the Mississippi River in the United States that can be fatal to both equines and humans. The disease has previously been most prolific in states like Florida, but there has been an increase in the prevalence in other states further up north on the east coast of the United States in recent years. The purpose of this research is to use the ecological niche modelling program Maxent to model EEEV habitat suitability probability. This research utilized data of fatality incidence in equine hosts, versus sentinel chicken infection data, the spatial data traditionally utilized for mapping EEEV. This research produced a map of habitat suitability, which expanded on previous risk models by utilizing additional environmental factors. It confirmed areas of higher probability identified by previous models but identified more narrow areas of higher probability as well. This model adds to the literature applying ecological modelling techniques to spatial epidemiology. It highlights spaces that represent the culmination of environmental factors for the transmission of EEEV. Considering these environmental factors identified can assist in identifying places where there is a higher risk of EEEV as new cases begin to appear.
Highlights
Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a disease that occurs east of the Mississippi River within the United States, which typically impacts horses but can infect humans as well
When a human contracts EEE, it is often fatal as there is no specific treatment for the disease – according to the Florida Department of Health (FDOH, 2019), about one-half of EEEV cases die of the disease
High habitat suitability area for EEE appears to be concentrated on the panhandle as well as northern and central Florida, with only a small hotspot in southeastern Florida (Figure 3)
Summary
Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a disease that occurs east of the Mississippi River within the United States, which typically impacts horses but can infect humans as well. Both mosquitoes and birds are carriers for the virus; birds are considered ‘dead-end’ hosts as they cannot transmit the disease further (CDC 2016). In 2019, almost 30 cases of human infection have been reported east of the Mississippi, in Michigan, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and North Carolina. It is critical to understand the contexts which promote viral spread
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