Abstract
In this study, we examine how Battery Storage (BES) and Thermal Storage (TES) combined with solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies with an increased storage duration and rental cost together with diversification would influence the Moroccan mix and to what extent the variability (i.e., adequacy risk) can be reduced; this is done using recent (2013) cost data and under various penetration scenarios. To do this, we use MERRA-2 climate reanalysis to simulate hourly demand and capacity factors (CFs) of wind, solar PV and CSP without and with increasing storage capabilities—as defined by the CSP Solar Multiple (SM) and PV Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). We adjust these time series to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones over the year 2018. Our objective is to maximize the renewable (RE) penetration and minimize the imbalances between RE production and consumption considering three optimization strategies. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance Portfolio approach—implemented in the E4CLIM model—in which we add a maximum-cost constraint to take into account the different rental costs of wind, PV and CSP. We propose a method to calculate the rental cost of storage and production technologies taking into account the constraints on storage associated with the increase of SM and ILR in the added PV-BES and CSP-TES modules, keeping the mean solar CFs fixed. We perform some load bands-reduction diagnostics to assess the reliability benefits provided by each RE technology. We find that, at low penetrations, the maximum-cost budget is not reached because a small capacity is needed. The higher the ILR for PV, the larger the share of PV in the mix compared to wind and CSP without storage is removed completely. Between PV-BES and CSP-TES, the latter is preferred as it has larger storage capacity and thus stronger impact in reducing the adequacy risk. As additional BES are installed, more than TES, PV-BES is favored. At high penetrations, optimal mixes are impacted by cost, the more so as CSP (resp., PV) with high SM (resp., ILR) are installed. Wind is preferably installed due to its high mean CF compared to cost, followed by either PV-BES or CSP/CSP-TES. Scenarios without or with medium storage capacity favor CSP/CSP-TES, while high storage duration scenarios are dominated by low-cost PV-BES. However, scenarios ignoring the storage cost and constraints provide more weight to PV-BES whatever the penetration level. We also show that significant reduction of RE variability can only be achieved through geographical diversification. Technological complementarity may only help to reduce the variance when PV and CSP are both installed without or with a small amount of storage. However, the diversification effect is slightly smaller when the SM and ILR are increased and the covariances are reduced as well since mixes become less diversified.
Highlights
Optimal mixes under high penetration scenarios are expected to combine different technological options with energy storage systems [1,2] because each technology has its own advantages and disadvantages and plays a different role
In the PV-ILR4–wind–Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)-Thermal Energy Storage (TES) SM2 mix (Figure 5b), where at low penetrations, both are installed but the fraction of CSP-TES is greater than that of PV-Battery Energy Storage (BES); we can see that the capacity credit is increased again to 48% (Figure 9f), the mid LR is increased to 49% (Figure 10f) and the base LR is increased to 43% (Figure 11f)
We examine how two solar technologies, Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), with different storage duration and rental costs, interact with wind in an optimal capacity mix, using recent (2013) cost data, under several scenario mixes
Summary
Optimal mixes under high penetration scenarios are expected to combine different technological options with energy storage systems [1,2] because each technology has its own advantages and disadvantages and plays a different role. Solar technologies such as Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) are foreseen in future climate [3,4]. When the sun falls, electricity demand increases but PV output decreases, resulting in the famous duck curve phenomenon [14,15]. This fluctuating generation imposes significant reliability and economic challenges [16,17,18] for the electrical generation and transmission system [19] and for the distribution system [20]
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