Utility of the Mangled Extremity Severity Score in Predicting Amputation in Military Lower Extremity Arterial Injury

Abstract

Effective amputation prediction may help inform appropriate early limb salvage efforts in military lower extremity (LE) arterial injury. The Mangled Extremity Severity Score (MESS) is the most commonly applied system for early amputation prediction but its utility in military trauma is unknown. Retrospective cohort study of Iraq and Afghanistan casualties with LE arterial injury who underwent a vascular limb salvage attempt. Retrospectively assessed MESS was statistically explored as an amputation predictor and MESS component surrogates (mechanism, vascular injury characteristics, tourniquet use, and transfusion volume) were used to characterize limb injuries by presenting characteristics and evaluated for amputation prediction. A total of 439 limbs were included with 99 (23%) amputations, 29 (7%) within 48 hr of injury. Median MESS was 5 (interquartile range 4-6) among salvaged limbs and 7 (5-9) among amputations (P<0.0001). An MESS cutoff of ≥7 had a better receiver operating characteristic sensitivity/specificity profile (area under the curve 0.696 overall, 0.765 amputation within 48 hr) than MESS ≥8 (0.593, 0.621), but amputation rates were only 43% for MESS ≥7 and 50% for ≥8. MESS ≥7 was significantly associated with age, polytrauma, blast or crush mechanism, fracture, tourniquet use, distal (popliteal/tibial) and multiple arterial injuries, and massive transfusion. Amputation was significantly associated with polytrauma, blast or crush mechanism, fracture, and massive transfusion; however, 83 casualties had all 4 characteristics with an amputation rate of only 46%. In combat casualties with arterial injury, LE amputation after attempted vascular limb salvage is inadequately predicted by existing scoring systems or the presenting characteristics available in this registry. Limb loss is predominantly late and likely because of factors not projectable at initial presentation.