Utility of chest radiograph severity scoring in emergency department for predicting outcomes in COVID-19: A study of 1275 patients

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ObjectiveTo measure the reliability and reproducibility of a chest radiograph severity score (CSS) in prognosticating patient's severity of disease and outcomes at the time of disease presentation in the emergency department (ED) with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Materials and methodsWe retrospectively studied 1275 consecutive RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 adult patients presenting to ED from March 2020 through June 2020. Chest radiograph severity score was assessed for each patient by two blinded radiologists. Clinical and laboratory parameters were collected. The rate of admission to intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation or death up to 60 days after the baseline chest radiograph were collected. Primary outcome was defined as occurrence of ICU admission or death. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between clinical parameters, chest radiograph severity score, and primary outcome. ResultsCSS of 3 or more was associated with ICU admission (78 % sensitivity; 73.1 % specificity; area under curve 0.81). CSS and pre-existing diabetes were independent predictors of primary outcome (odds ratio, 7; 95 % CI: 3.87, 11.73; p < 0.001 & odds ratio, 2; 95 % CI: 1–3.4, p 0.02 respectively). No significant difference in primary outcome was observed for those with history of hypertension, asthma, chronic kidney disease or coronary artery disease. ConclusionSemi-quantitative assessment of CSS at the time of disease presentation in the ED predicted outcomes in adults of all age with COVID-19.