Utilising random forests in the modelling of Eragrostis curvula presence and absence in an Australian grassland system

Abstract

Eragrostis curvula is an agronomically and ecologically undesirable perennial tussock grass dispersed across Australia. The objective of this study is to investigate relationships of ecologically relevant abiotic variables with the presence of E. curvula at a landscape scale in the Snowy Monaro region, Australia. Through vegetation surveys across 21 privately owned properties and freely available ancillary data on E. curvula presence, we used seven predictor variables, including Sentinel 2 NDVI reflectance, topography, distance from roads and watercourses and climate, to predict the presence or absence of E. curvula across its invaded range using a random forest (RF) algorithm. Assessment of performance metrics resulted in a pseudo-R squared of 0.96, a kappa of 0.97 and an R squared for out-of-bag samples of 0.67. Temperature had the largest influence on the model’s performance, followed by linear features such as highways and rivers. Highways’ high importance in the model may indicate that the presence or absence of E. curvula is related to the density of human transit, thus as a vector of E. curvula propagule dispersal. Further, humans’ tendency to reside adjacent to rivers may indicate that E. curvula’s presence or absence is related to human density and E. curvula’s potential to spread via water courses.