Uticaj tržišnih cena električne energije na isplativost buduće reverzibilne hidroelektrane u Srbiji

Abstract

Deregulation in the power sector, liberalization of the electricity market, tendency to connect markets across Europe, introduction of incentives for construction and use of renewable energy sources (RES) and - consequently - their increasing presence in electricity systems, have taken a decisive impact on wholesale electricity prices. In addition, the introduction of CO2 taxes has further increased overall electricity prices. On the other hand, it reduced the profits of fossil fuel thermal power plants (TPPs). Also, in order to meet the prescribed requirements in the field of environmental protection, TPPs must apply pollution prevention systems that are very expensive, both in terms of investment and exploitation. As an alternative, investments in the hydro sector should be considered. However, this option is characterized by other issues; In contrast to the long-term construction and exploitation of hydro capacity, there are fluctuations in electricity prices on the day-ahead market which affect the work schedule and revenues of these facilities. To investigate this problem, hourly and daily prices in the regional electricity market were analysed. Trends in wholesale electricity prices on the day-ahead market have been determined. Their relevant values were estimated and used as one of the sets of input data for cost-benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis of the case study - future reversible hydropower plant (RHPP) "Bistrica". The impact of fluctuations in electricity prices on the day-ahead market was emphasized. The aim of this research was to draw a conclusion as to whether the movement of these prices is in favour of the construction of possible RHPPs in Serbia. Based on the conducted analyses, it can be concluded that the upward trend in the level of wholesale electricity prices (which began in 2019 and is expected to continue in the future considering the EU regulatory policy regarding CO2 emissions taxes) may positively affect the profitability of investment in RHE Bistrica (i.e. to shorten the payback period), but not so dramatically, since with the increase in electricity prices, the costs for pumping also increase.