Uticaj deviznog kursa na trgovinski bilans Srbije

Abstract

Subject of this research is contained in its title. We examined the connection and the influence of the foreign exchange rate on the foreign trade balance of Serbia as an independent state in this century, that is, in the period 2007-2017. The aim was to determine whether the theoretical paradigm applies in concrete terms, and that the decline in the value of the domestic currency leads to an improvement in the balance of payments, given the role of price elasticities of import and export demand as well as the level of domestic consumption. The SPSS software package was used for statistical data processing. The observed variables: foreign exchange foreign trade deficit, the exchange rate, the effective nominal exchange rate and the effective real exchange rate are from the point of view of the Scale type. The data were taken from official sources, primarily from the National Bank of Serbia and the Ministry of Finance of Serbia. The obtained results unequivocally confirm that in specific conditions depreciation of the dinar is favorable to the reduction of the deficit of the foreign trade balance. The basic value of this result is that such a policy should continue if the goal is to improve the liquidity of Serbia in international payments. We conclude that the policy of the exchange rate of the dinar in the observed period was properly conducted, and that within the framework of other measures of economic policy, primarily monetary and fiscal, in that sense, gave satisfactory results. In the paper itself, we first defined the basic concepts related to the types and exchange rate regimes. We have added additional conditions for the effectiveness of this policy in order to improve the balance of external trade. By testing the hypotesess we verified the validity of the initial hypotheses of the research. We concluded that the economic policy in this domain in the mentioned period was conducted with due diligence.