Abstract
Abstract Even though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.
Highlights
Two-stage or runoff elections are the most prevalent voting system for electing a president in modern democracies (Golder, 2005)
Out of 109 countries where presidents are democratically elected, 71 use a two-stage or runoff voting system (ACE, n.d.); they are the prevalent electoral system in Latin America (Pérez-Linãn, 2006). These two-stage elections offer an opportunity for politicians to plan their final campaign using analytical methods based on actual voting data, because they can rely on the actual voting observed in the first-stage election to learn about voter perceptions and preferences before the final election
The insights gained from the first round can be used in many ways. Foremost, they show the specific voting districts where the surviving candidates occupy a strong or weak position. They show the political capital held by eliminated candidates, and the value and feasibility of their support in the final campaign
Summary
Two-stage or runoff elections are the most prevalent voting system for electing a president in modern democracies (Golder, 2005). Out of 109 countries where presidents are democratically elected, 71 use a two-stage or runoff voting system (ACE, n.d.); they are the prevalent electoral system in Latin America (Pérez-Linãn, 2006). These two-stage elections offer an opportunity for politicians to plan their final campaign using analytical methods based on actual voting data, because they can rely on the actual voting observed in the first-stage election to learn about voter perceptions and preferences before the final election. The insights gained from the first round can be used in many ways And foremost, they show the specific voting districts where the surviving candidates occupy a strong or weak position. These first-round results can be combined with polls gathered before the second round, to produce more precise simulations for the final outcome
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