Abstract
BackgroundUnhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. Given the competition for health care resources in East Africa, this study aims to determine the optimal sample size given the opportunity cost of potentially re-allocating trial funds towards cost-effective alcohol treatments.MethodsWe used value of information methods to determine the optimal sample size by maximizing the expected net benefit of sampling for a hypothetical 2-arm intervention vs. control randomized trial, across ranges of policymaker’s willingness-to-pay for the health benefit of an intervention. Probability distributions describing the relative likelihood of alternative trial results were imputed based on prior studies. In the base case, policymaker’s willingness-to-pay was based on a simultaneously resource-constrained priority (routine HIV virological testing). Sensitivity analysis was performed for various willingness-to-pay thresholds and intervention durations.ResultsA new effectiveness trial accounting for the benefit of more precise decision-making on alcohol intervention implementation would benefit East Africa $67,000 with the optimal sample size of 100 persons per arm under the base case willingness-to-pay threshold and intervention duration of 20 years. At both a conservative willingness-to-pay of 1 x GDP/capita and a high willingness-to-pay of 3 x GDP/capita for an additional health gain added by an alcohol intervention, a new trial was not recommended due to limited decision uncertainty. When intervention duration was 10 or 5 years, there was no return on investment across suggested willingness-to-pay thresholds.ConclusionsValue of information methods could be used as an alternative approach to assist the efficient design of alcohol trials. If reducing unhealthy alcohol use is a long-term goal for HIV programs in East Africa, additional new trials with optimal sample sizes ranging from 100 to 250 persons per arm could save the opportunity cost of implementing less cost-effective alcohol strategies in HIV prevention. Otherwise, conducting a new trial is not recommended.
Highlights
Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in East Africa
Unhealthy alcohol consumption is common in East Africa [1] and multiple studies have shown that unhealthy alcohol consumption has exacerbated the HIV epidemic [2, 3]
It is recommended that alcohol interventions that reduce harmful alcohol use among HIV infected patients in East Africa should be developed [3, 18], tested [19], and integrated as a part of HIV prevention and treatment programs [2, 6, 7, 20, 21], especially considering the fact that sub-Saharan African countries still account for almost 70% of new infections in the global HIV epidemic [22]
Summary
Unhealthy alcohol consumption exacerbates the HIV epidemic in East Africa. Potential benefits of new trials that test the effectiveness of alcohol interventions could not be evaluated by traditional sampling methods. It is recommended that alcohol interventions that reduce harmful alcohol use among HIV infected patients in East Africa should be developed [3, 18], tested [19], and integrated as a part of HIV prevention and treatment programs [2, 6, 7, 20, 21], especially considering the fact that sub-Saharan African countries still account for almost 70% of new infections in the global HIV epidemic [22]. Note that we define prior information or prior evidence as the effectiveness of an alcohol intervention studied in prior trials and define additional information or additional evidence as the information that will be concluded from new trials
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