Abstract

Conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) is currently used by the bankingindustry to measure market risk as it relates to equity risk,currency risk, interest rate risk, and commodity risk. This paperexamines the downside market risk in residential housing usingvarious conditional volatility models. Although there iscontroversy surrounding the use of VaR as a risk managementtool, these concerns are explored through various modelingscenarios. Furthermore, an alternative portfolio is constructedminimizing VaR exposure as a portfolio constraint. The findingsreveal that the conditional volatility models are especially usefulwhen the current downside residential market risk is time-perioddependent because the traditional risk measure based on a longertime series is less influenced by short-term extremes.

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