Using USCAP’s Analytical Models, the Transportation Security Administration Balances the Impacts of Aviation Security Policies on Passengers and Airlines

Abstract

The United States Commercial Aviation Partnership (USCAP), a group of government and industry stakeholders, combined several operations research methods in an analytical process and model that encompasses the US commercial aviation industry, including travelers, airlines, airports, airline and airport suppliers, government agencies, and travel and tourism entities. With input from these stakeholders, the model, combining system dynamics and econometrics, evaluates the effects of proposed security measures over 25 years. It enables all stakeholders to share a common understanding of these effects and helps government decision makers to improve security without undue and unforeseen operational and economic impact. The model uses linear and nonlinear programming, single and multivariate regression, system dynamics, econometrics, and Monte Carlo simulation. Since 2004, the government has considered the model results in determining policies for screening and credentialing airport employees, screening passengers and cargo, determining security staffing levels, and charging security fees. All participating stakeholders reviewed each analysis for acceptability. Based on the model’s success, they envision extending its use to include nonsecurity policy issues. September 11, 2001, the day commercial airplanes became weapons of mass destruction, is personal to many of us and has changed our perspectives on our lives and our world. The official death toll in the attacks was 2,986, including the airline passengers and airline crew members, workers and visitors in the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the police and firefighters, and the 19 hijackers. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) halted all flight operations at the nation’s airports for the first time in US history and swiftly grounded the approximately 5,000 commercial aircraft that were in flight. Only military aircraft were flying over the US for the rest of that and the next few days. The events of that day left the airline industry and its supporting companies financially devastated.