Using Trajectories of Bedside Vital Signs to Identify COVID-19 Subphenotypes

Abstract

Trajectories of bedside vital signs have been used to identify sepsis subphenotypes with distinct outcomes and treatment responses. The objective of this study was to validate the vitals trajectory model in a multicenter cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of the resulting subphenotypes. Can the trajectory of routine bedside vital signs identify COVID-19 subphenotypes with distinct clinical characteristics and outcomes? The study included adult patients admitted with COVID-19 to four academic hospitals in the Emory Healthcare system between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022. Using a validated group-based trajectory model, we classified patients into previously defined vital sign trajectories using oral temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and systolic and diastolic BP measured in the first 8h of hospitalization. Clinical characteristics, biomarkers, and outcomes were compared between subphenotypes. Heterogeneity of treatment effect to tocilizumab was evaluated. The 7,065 patients with hospitalized COVID-19 were classified into four subphenotypes: group A (n= 1,429, 20%)-high temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and hypotensive; group B (1,454, 21%)-high temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and hypertensive; group C (2,996, 42%)-low temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and normotensive; and group D (1,186, 17%)-low temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and hypotensive. Groups A and D had higher ORs of mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and 30-day inpatient mortality (P< .001). On comparing patients receiving tocilizumab (n= 55) with those who met criteria for tocilizumab but were admitted before its use (n= 461), there was significant heterogeneity of treatment effect across subphenotypes in the association of tocilizumab with 30-day mortality (P= .001). By using bedside vital signs available in even low-resource settings, we found novel subphenotypes associated with distinct manifestations of COVID-19, which could lead to preemptive and targeted treatments.