Using time series to predict the change in the U.S. unemployment rate at covid-19

Abstract

To some extent, the unemployment rate can measure the economic situation of a country, generally speaking, the economic development is good during the period of low unemployment, and there are relatively few social contradictions and problems; Contrarily, the economy is weak, social conflicts are obvious, and the unemployment rate is high. Therefore, studying the unemployment rate can be used as one of the references for studying the good or bad economy of a country, and at the same time, predicting the future unemployment rate can also allow the government department to understand the future situation to prevent possible problems. The Covid-19 epidemic in 2020 had a great impact on the job market, this paper uses time series data of the US business rate, and uses the ETS model and the ARIMA model to predict and analyze the unemployment rate. in addition, The same methodology has been applied to states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates in the United States to predict unemployment rates and analyze the specific impact of the pandemic on employment.