Using the tree growth model MOSES to assess the dynamics of Dinaric old-growth mixed beech–fir forest ecosystems

Abstract

The limiting factor in studying the dynamics of old-growth forests is the lack of long-term data. A model for general Dinaric old-growth beech–fir forest ecosystem dynamic has not yet been fully developed. Only general schemes, primarily developed for natural forests in Central Europe, have been used in the research of old-growth forest dynamics. One example of a model for simulating growth of uneven-aged mixed-species stands is called MOSES (modeling stand response). The results given by MOSES indicate general trends of the structure dynamics (stand density, volume, diameter of breast height (dbh) distribution, mortality and other) over time. Comparisons of the predicted and measured dbh distribution show very good prediction capability for all species on the plot, when the period of simulation is up to 50 years. Regarding our results, we can conclude that MOSES is a useful tool for analyzing the complexity of old-growth forest structure dynamics and the resulting predictions could easily be improved by including local data for model calibration to address species-specific regional effects.