Using the paleotsunami data for the tsunami hazard assessment

Abstract

The article is focused on the development of statistical methods of the tsunami recurrence evaluation using paleotsunami data. The new key moment is the creation of a model to quantify the preservation potential of paleotsunami deposits. The article includes a brief overview of the results of studies of the variability and preservation of tsunami deposits. The model was tested on materials about paleotsunami on the coast in the Khalaktyrka area (a village within the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), obtained earlier, for four time intervals set by the key-marker volcanic tephra layers in Kamchatka (Ksudach in 1907, Avachinsky in 1855 and 1779, Opala in 606). The maximum likelihood estimates of the number of tsunamigenic horizons for the indicated time intervals are given. The restrictions of the considered model are analyzed.