Abstract
Water utilities are facing the challenging problem of planning rehabilitation and renewal of their urban water systems for an uncertain future, which will be affected by climate change, demographic changes and extensive changes in the way the public perceives the water services. For the purpose of envisioning the future, the multiple scenario approach is presented, and its benefits and drawbacks are discussed in relation to other futures forecasting methods. The paper guides the reader on how to build scenarios that represent plausible futures for renewal planning of urban water and wastewater networks. For this purpose, a table is produced that gives an overview of relevant scenarios and their potential consequences. In the end, a case study from a Norwegian perspective is presented that gives the reader an overview of the process of building scenarios based on both qualitative and quantitative approaches.
Highlights
There are a number of publications and ongoing research within the academic community of urban water systems that focuses on future studies, sustainable development and the transition to Sustainable Urban Water Management (SUWM) principles
Based on a review of available literature on long-term planning principles within the urban water system and the theory of future studies, the authors have suggested a process based on multiple scenario planning to be the most suitable to plan long-term rehabilitation and investment needs in the urban water and wastewater pipe systems
In the last several decades, the multiple scenario approach has emerged as a central method to envision different futures in future science circles, and have gained momentum in the water sector
Summary
There are a number of publications and ongoing research within the academic community of urban water systems that focuses on future studies, sustainable development and the transition to Sustainable Urban Water Management (SUWM) principles. A lot of the work focuses on current and future challenges for the water sector, the need to apply sustainable solutions and the need for water utilities to implement SUWM principles through decentralization of the urban water system (UWS). The method described will facilitate managers in implementing a most robust and sustainable intervention strategy, by considering the uncertainty and the unpredictability of the future, both through aspects that are external to the urban water system and internal aspects. Key challenges when managing the urban water systems
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