Using the Index Method in Analyzing Fertility in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Its Regions in 2009–2022

Abstract

The present article covers key findings of the study aimed at proposing an index method for analyzing fertility in the Republic of Kazakhstan and its regions using official statistical information. The study's relevance arose from the fact that in the 1990s, Kazakhstan experienced a significant population decline due to migration outflow and a decrease in the birth rate. The strategy for development of the Republic of Kazakhstan until the year 2030 set the task of overcoming the trend of the population decline. An assertive demographic policy has become one of the country's long-term development strategies.The paper presents a methodology for estimating the increments of children born depending on the number of women of reproductive age, changes in age-related fertility rates, and structural shifts in the age groups of women. The developed methodology of the index analysis of fertility was tested, which made it possible to obtain new data on the dynamics of fertility in Kazakhstan and its regions from 2009 to 2022 and the influence of individual factors on it. Calculations showed that, in general, the number of children born was influenced mainly by age-related fertility rates and structural shifts in the ages of women of reproductive age.Significant differences in the dynamics and impact of individual factors were observed in the regions of Kazakhstan, which in the study were divided into four groups. This shall allow, later on, to carry out targeted demographic measures, taking regional characteristics into account and being mindful of the current demographic situation when planning socio-economic policy in the field of family and demography of the regions.