Using the fuzzy evidential reasoning approach to assess and forecast the water conflict risk in transboundary Rivers: A case study of the Mekong river basin

Abstract

Improving the reliability of conflict evaluation and risk prediction methods used in transboundary water-sharing problems is an important research gap that needs to be addressed. This paper constructed a novel and comprehensive water conflict risk assessment framework that takes into account the multi-dimensional attributes of water resources. The reliability of each evaluation index is represented based on the triangular fuzzy number which can address the ambiguity and uncertainty. The fuzzy evidence reasoning model (FERM) was constructed to comprehensively calculate the risk level of water conflict in the transboundary river basin. The GM (1,1) model was used to predict the indicators for dynamic forecasting of the water conflict risk, and the water sharing problem in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) was selected as the case study to validate the method proposed in this paper. The results showed: (1) Except for Myanmar, the risk of water conflicts in other countries has decreased and will continue to decrease in the future. (2) The water quantity conflict risk in Laos and Thailand is increasing. (3) There is little change in the risk of water ecological conflict in riparian countries. (4) The risk of socio-economic conflict in Cambodia rises from high grade to very high grade, while the risk of economic and social conflict in other countries will decline. (5) From 1992 to 2027, water conflict in riparian countries have been on the decline. The comparison of the TWAP’s (Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme) assessment and prediction of water conflict risk shows that the research results of the two are close to each other. Therefore, the proposed model could help to assess and forecast the water conflict risk in transboundary rivers. This assists riparian countries to take effective preventive measures to avoid water conflicts.