Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to predict the risk of heat related deaths

Abstract

Extremes of climate are not uncommon in Australia and heatwaves are not infrequent. Periods of high ambient temperature may result in clusters of heat related deaths, which may place strain on forensic facilities. This paper describes the formulation of the Excess Heat Factor using meteorological data to provide a means of predicting death resulting from periods of extreme heat stress. The 2009 South Australian heatwave had the highest ranked Excess Heat Factor in Adelaide's records. There were 58 heat related deaths, with the bulk of the heat related deaths following the peak Excess Heat Factor value (144 °C2). The 2008 heatwave had a lower peak Excess Heat Factor value (36 °C2); there was only one heat related death, which followed the peak in the Excess Heat Factor. It is proposed that calculation of the Excess Heat Factor from meteorological data could provide a means to predict and identify heat related deaths resulting from extreme weather conditions.