Abstract
Abstract This study approaches the identification and prediction of transformative research topics by using the concepts of catastrophe theory. Based on the evaluation model of catastrophe theory, 11 indicators were selected for four different aspects: growth rate, economic and social influence, network characteristics and the degree of uncertainty in evaluating an emerging topics’ transformative potential. The stem cell research field is used as case study. The results of this study show that there are differences between various emerging research topics (ERTs) within the stem cell research field and their potential ability to induce changes and innovation. The method developed in this article is able to identify and predict the future transformative potential of ERTs and provides reference information for scientific and technological planning, industrial policy and scientific research management.
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