Abstract
OBJECTIVESThe capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources.METHODSThis cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection.RESULTSOf the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%.CONCLUSIONSBased on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.
Highlights
The data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were reported to the provincial health center (PHC) database from (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs) affiliated with district health centers, and (c) prison
Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in the 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified by transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) by VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) by prison
HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; CI, confidence interval; VCTCs, vol unteer counseling and testing centers. 1Considering an estimated number of unregistered HIV-positive individuals of 14,868, and a total estimated number of HIV-positive patients after excluding duplicates of 17,149
Summary
Measuring and understanding the size of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive population is a critical public health. The capture-recapture method can be applied to any situation with 2 or even more incomplete lists [6] This method has been recently used in epidemiologic studies for estimating hidden populations with a particular disease and assessing the completeness of ascertainment of disease registers [7,8,9,10]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
