Using the Arima model to forecast the share of railways in the industry

Abstract

The relevance of the studied topic is related to the statistical study of the contribution of using the Arima model to forecast the share of railways in the industry to the socio-economic development of the country, the analysis of the dynamics of their economic growth, and the need to develop and evaluate the most appropriate economic-mathematical models for managing the type of activity. Taking into account that various econometric models can be used in the analysis of problems related to small business activity, we found it necessary to use some of these models. The purpose of the study is to model the share of small business in the industry and develop forecast parameters. Using the Arima model to forecast the share of railways in the industry and private entrepreneurship activities were chosen as the object of research. The scientific works of the republican and foreign economists, as well as the data of the republican and regional statistical offices serve as a source of information. The expected result of the research is to reveal the modern laws of the studied economic processes, to justify their situation using the ARIMA model. As a result of the conducted research, the forecast parameters related to the share of small business in the industry until 2028 were determined.