Using systems thinking to design actionable futures: a nuclear weapons example

Leon D. Young

doi:10.1186/s40309-018-0138-8

Abstract

It is a general observation that foresight is analogised with forecast. Yet foresight, or futures thinking, is not predictive or deterministic. The misperception appears to be based on the belief that foresight does not often result in tangible results that are immediately applicable within an executive or policy decision arena. Foresight, it is assumed, is unfounded on reality and thus not relevant to fast tempo or strategic level operations. This paper contends that the use of evidence-based methods allows foresight work to be immediately operational and useful.Using a case study of nuclear weapon security within Pakistan, this paper explores the structured use of systems thinking, scenario development and options analysis to develop plausible, feasible and actionable strategic policy options. The case study demonstrates that it is possible to develop quantifiable options derived out of traditional foresight methods. This paper argues that useful foresight needs to be tangible and provide feasible options.

Highlights

Drawing from a multi-discipline perspective, this paper describes a novel methodology for developing evidencebased, actionable strategic options
Background problem and method The problem example used in this article is derived from the 2009 book 7 deadly scenarios: a military futurist explores war in the 21st century by Krepinevich A.F where a crisis in Pakistan is described ([9], p. 30)
What is PROBABLE? While Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR), and many other scenario development methods, are able to weed out wildly improbable future narratives, this step draws from the systems thinking literature to model and simulate the environment

Summary

Introduction

Drawing from a multi-discipline perspective, this paper describes a novel methodology for developing evidencebased, actionable strategic options. Employing a multi-disciplinary method that draws strongly from Foresight, Systems Thinking and Operations Research, a four-step process is used to develop strategic options for the National Security Council: 1. While FAR, and many other scenario development methods, are able to weed out wildly improbable future narratives, this step draws from the systems thinking literature to model and simulate the environment. The aim of this step is to understand the points in the environment that can be influenced—the levers of change. Islamic Faction Loyalists, International Intervention, Militants, F1 Dominating L1 Dominating I1 Welcomed and effective

Strong

Scenario F

Scenario C

Scenario R

Ineffective Islamic faction

Conclusions