Abstract
Vector borne diseases are a continuing global threat to both human and animal health. The ability of vectors such as mosquitos to cover large distances and cross country borders undetected provide an ever-present threat of pathogen spread. Many diseases can infect multiple vector species, such that even if the climate is not hospitable for an invasive species, indigenous species may be susceptible and capable of transmission such that one incursion event could lead to disease establishment in these species. Here we present a consensus modelling methodology to estimate the habitat suitability for presence of mosquito species in the UK deemed competent for Rift Valley fever virus (RVF) and demonstrate its application in an assessment of the relative risk of establishment of RVF virus in the UK livestock population. The consensus model utilises observed UK mosquito surveillance data, along with climatic and geographic prediction variables, to inform six independent species distribution models; the results of which are combined to produce a single prediction map. As a livestock host is needed to transmit RVF, we then combine the consensus model output with existing maps of sheep and cattle density to predict the areas of the UK where disease is most likely to establish in local mosquito populations. The model results suggest areas of high suitability for RVF competent mosquito species across the length and breadth of the UK. Notable areas of high suitability were the South West of England and coastal areas of Wales, the latter of which was subsequently predicted to be at higher risk for establishment of RVF due to higher livestock densities. This study demonstrates the applicability of outputs of species distribution models to help predict hot-spots for risk of disease establishment. While there is still uncertainty associated with the outputs we believe that the predictions are an improvement on just using the raw presence points from a database alone. The outputs can also be used as part of a multidisciplinary approach to inform risk based disease surveillance activities.
Highlights
Vector borne diseases are a continuing global threat to both animal and human health
While there is limited real world evidence for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) specific to European species, recent laboratory studies have confirmed that lambs bred in Europe are susceptible to infection with Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) [17,18] and that mosquito species indigenous to Europe are susceptible to infection with the virus and have the capacity to transmit infection [19,20]
Species distribution models: To estimate potential areas of suitable habitat of RVFV competent mosquito species, we developed a consensus model framework, based on an existing methodology that compares a range of different models [22]
Summary
Vector borne diseases are a continuing global threat to both animal and human health. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic mosquito borne viral disease that can affect both humans and livestock, predominantly cattle and sheep [12]. Mathematical modelling has suggested that transmission is possible based on the distribution of mosquito vectors and livestock in The Netherlands [21]. This suggests that it would be prudent to investigate how the virus might be transmitted in a temperate region such as the United Kingdom (UK)
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