Using species distribution models to effectively conserve biodiversity into the future

Abstract

Canadian biodiversity is especially high in temperate southern regions, where human-dominated land uses are both intensive and widespread. As a result, endangered species are also disproportionately concentrated in these areas. Climate change presents a new threat across most of Canada, including areas of intensive human land use, which creates conditions for substantial shifts in species composition and potential losses of many rare species. Protected areas is one adaptation strategy but, in Canada, parks suffer from severe limitations in their distribution, size, and because they have static boundaries. Land use changes around several protected areas in Canada are leading increasingly to their effective isolation, a trend we demonstrate using high resolution satellite data. Little published research has yet addressed this issue in the Canadian context, although some models now forecast ecological changes in the next century. Adaptation to global change impacts will necessitate refocusing conservation strategies beyond the boundaries of protected areas to include broader landscape perspectives. Necessary responses to these challenges include validated models predicting future biotic responses to global change, expanded biodiversity monitoring across Canada, improvements to the patchwork of federal and provincial legislation protecting species, and preemptive conservation strategies that recognize impending transitions to unprecedented environmental conditions.