Using Spatial Uncertainty to Dynamically Determine UAS Flight Paths

Abstract

In the aftermath of radiation or chemical accidents, responders must rapidly map out regions of contamination as quickly and accurately as possible. One important and relevant statistical method for this kind of disaster response is spatial kriging, which makes predictions based on incomplete knowledge of spatially referenced observations. Given an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) equipped with radiation sensors, we develop a spatial statistics-based approach to optimally map out a contamination field over a geographic region. In this article, we evaluate three approaches to UAS mapping: a Variance Driven Sampling (VDS) approach that minimizes kriging variance, a more computationally intensive Hybrid Entropy Search (HES), and a baseline Levy Flight search. Considering limited UAS range, we also implement a restricted version of these approaches that only considers nearby points. We find that HES is optimal for small numbers of sampled points with the restricted versions of HES and VDS becoming optimal for larger samples. Ultimately, the best method is dependent on the number of samples to be taken, with each method providing clear benefits over a random search in terms of both mean squared error and path length. We demonstrate the advantages of our methodology using actual radiation field test data from the Idaho National Lab.