Using social media information to predict the credit risk of listed enterprises in the supply chain

Abstract

PurposeSocial media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction performance. This paper proposes a credit risk prediction framework that integrates social media information to improve listed enterprise credit risk prediction in the supply chain.Design/methodology/approachThe prediction framework includes four stages. First, social media information is obtained through web crawler technology. Second, text sentiment in social media information is mined through natural language processing. Third, text sentiment features are constructed. Finally, the new features are integrated with traditional features as input for models for credit risk prediction. This paper takes Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises as an example to test the prediction framework and obtain relevant management enlightenment.FindingsThe prediction framework can improve enterprise credit risk prediction performance. The prediction performance of text sentiment features in social media data is better than that of most traditional features. The time-weighted text sentiment feature has the best prediction performance in mining social media information.Practical implicationsThe prediction framework is helpful for the credit decision-making of credit departments and the policy regulation of regulatory departments and is conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises.Originality/valueThe prediction framework can effectively mine social media information and obtain an excellent prediction effect of listed enterprise credit risk in the supply chain.