Using Small Area Estimation to Produce Official Statistics

Abstract

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and other federal statistical agencies have used probability-based surveys as the foundation for official statistics for over half a century. Non-survey data that can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of estimates such as administrative, remotely sensed, and retail data have become increasingly available. Both frequentist and Bayesian models are used to combine survey and non-survey data in a principled manner. NASS has recently adopted Bayesian subarea models for three of its national programs: farm labor, crop county estimates, and cash rent county estimates. Each program provides valuable estimates at multiple scales of geography. For each program, technical challenges had to be met and a strenuous review completed before models could be adopted as the foundation for official statistics. Moving models out of the research phase into production required major changes in the production process and a cultural shift. With the implemented models, NASS now has measures of uncertainty, transparency, and reproducibility of its official statistics.