Abstract
Value-added models (VAMs) are increasingly used to measure school effectiveness. Yet, random variation in school attendance is necessary to test the validity of VAMs and to guide the selection of models for measuring causal effects of schools. In this paper, I use random assignment from a public school choice lottery to test the predictive power of VAM specifications. In VAMs with minimal controls and two or more years of prior data, I fail to reject the hypothesis that school effects are unbiased. Overall, many commonly used VAMs are accurate predictors of student achievement gains.
Highlights
Using School Choice Lotteries to Test Measures of School Effectiveness David J
While school accountability measures are often based on test score levels, critics argue that test score gains are a fairer way to judge schools’ contributions to student achievement (e.g. Ladd and Walsh 2002, Ryan 2004)
Random variation in school attendance is both rare and necessary to test the validity of Value-added models (VAMs), and to guide the selection of models for measuring causal effects of schools
Summary
USING SCHOOL CHOICE LOTTERIES TO TEST MEASURES OF SCHOOL EFFECTIVENESS David J. Working Paper 19803 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19803 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Using School Choice Lotteries to Test Measures of School Effectiveness David J. Deming NBER Working Paper No 19803 January 2014 JEL No I2,I21,I24,J24
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