Abstract
Abstract. In the last few years, Robust Satellite data analysis Techniques (RST) have been proposed and successfully applied for monitoring major natural and environmental risks. Among the various fields of application, RST analysis has been used as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions, devoted to detect and monitor thermal anomalies possibly related to earthquake occurrence. In this work, RST has been applied, for the first time, to thermal infrared observations collected by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) – the sensor onboard EOS (Earth Observing System) satellites – in the case of Abruzzo (Italy) earthquake occurred on 6 April 2009 (ML~5.8). First achievements, shown in this work, seem to confirm the sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting perturbations of the Earth�s emission thermal field few days before the event. The reliability of such results, based on the analysis of 10 years of MODIS observations, seems to be supported by the results achieved analyzing the same area in similar observation conditions but in seismically unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with ML≥5) that will be also presented.
Highlights
Since the eighties, a growing number of studies have reported the appearance of space-time anomalies in TIR (Thermal Infra-Red) satellite imagery before severe earthquakes.In order to explain the appearance of anomalously high TIR records near the place and the time of earthquake oc-currence, different authors attributed their appearance to the increase of green-house gas emission rates, to the modification of ground water regime and/or to the increase of convective heat flux (Qiang et al, 1991; Tronin, 2000)
Robust Satellite data analysis Techniques (RST) has been applied, for the first time, to thermal infrared observations collected by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) – the sensor onboard EOS (Earth Observing System) satellites - in the case of Abruzzo (Italy) earthquake occurred on 6 April 2009 (ML∼5.8)
The main problems of the mentioned studies were the lack of a rigorous definition of anomalous TIR signal fluctuations, the absence of a convincing testing step based on a validation/confutation approach and the scarce attention paid to the possibility that other causes different from seismic activity could be responsible for the observed TIR variations
Summary
A growing number of studies (see for example Gorny et al, 1988; Qiang and Dian, 1992; Tronin, 1996; Qiang et al, 1997; Tronin et al, 2002; Ouzounov and Freund, 2004) have reported the appearance of space-time anomalies in TIR (Thermal Infra-Red) satellite imagery before (from weeks to days) severe earthquakes. The main problems of the mentioned studies were the lack of a rigorous definition of anomalous TIR signal fluctuations, the absence of a convincing testing step based on a validation/confutation approach and the scarce attention paid to the possibility that other causes (e.g. meteorological) different from seismic activity could be responsible for the observed TIR variations. Starting from these considerations, a different approach called Robust Satellite Techniques (RST; Tramutoli 2005, 2007) - initially named RAT (Robust AVHRR Techniques, Tramutoli, 1998) – was proposed to investigate possible relations between earthquake occurrence and space-time fluctuations of Earth’s emitted TIR radiation observed from satellite. Results obtained by RST at the time of this earthquake will be compared with those obtained by an identical analysis (confutation) performed for the same area in a different, quite sesimically unperturbed (i.e. characterized by the absence of earthquakes of similar magnitude over the same area) year, in order to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in presence/absence of significant earthquakes in similar observation conditions
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