Using risk factor statistics in decision-making: prospects and challenges

Lene Mosegaard Søbjerg,Brian J Taylor,Jaroslaw Przeperski,Saša Horvat,Hani Nouman,Denise Harvey

doi:10.1080/13691457.2020.1772728

Abstract

ABSTRACT Society expects social workers and other professionals to use the best available knowledge in making decisions. Statistical (numerical) data are rapidly becoming an increasing part of the repertoire of knowledge available to professionals. However, social workers can at times seem reluctant to use statistics to inform their judgement processes when considering the assessment and seriousness of risk factors. This paper explores and considers the potential use of statistical methods in understanding risk factors. Potentials of using statistics include reducing variability in human judgements, increasing accuracy and reducing human bias. When contemplating these potentials, it is important to consider ethical issues, legal and organisational issues as well as technical issues. Acknowledging that potentials and challenges need to be weighed, it is imperative that the profession engages in the development of adequate statistical methods to improve the knowledge and skill base for social work in the best interests of clients and families.

Highlights

The deaths of children and vulnerable adults often result in the media and politicians criticising the ability of social workers and other professionals to predict harm accurately (Warner 2014)
Using statistical models in decision-making involves identifying factors associated with potential future harmful behaviour and rating these factors according to their importance (Calder & Archer, 2015)
Statistical models have the potential to improve the accuracy of predictions compared with human predictions as large amounts of complex information may be analysed beyond the capacity of the human brain (Miller, 1956, Putnam-Hornstein, 2013)

Summary

Introduction

The deaths of children and vulnerable adults often result in the media and politicians criticising the ability of social workers and other professionals to predict harm accurately (Warner 2014). The most common instances of public concern involve cases of child abuse, along with cases of suicide, homicide by mental health patients or harm caused to an older person (Warner 2018) These cases often give rise to a media uproar urging the public and politicians to take a critical stance towards social work and other professionals for failing to predict the harmful outcome despite ‘obvious’ signs of risk. Adequate risk assessment and subsequently making the correct decision about how to act are essential elements of good social work (Taylor 2017a), but obtaining the necessary knowledge for making robust assessments and good decisions are not as straightforward as it may appear to politicians, the media and the public at large This type of media coverage is resulting in an increasing focus of social work research on decision-making, professional judgement and assessment of risk with the ambition of providing a more robust evidence base for assessing and managing risk. The aim of this article is to provide an understanding of how statistics might influence and improve risk assessment, professional judgement and decision-making in social work, as well as highlighting key challenges

Objectives

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion