Abstract
Understanding future tree species migration is challenging due to the unprecedented rate of climate change combined with the presence of human barriers that may limit or impede species movement. Projected changes in climatic conditions outpace migration rates, and more realistic rates of range expansion are needed to make sound environmental policies. In this paper, we develop a modeling approach that takes into account both the geographic changes in the area suitable for the growth and reproduction of tree species, as well as limits imposed geographically on their potential migration using remotely-sensed land cover information. To do so, we combined a physiologically-based decision tree model with a remotely-sensed-derived diffusion-dispersal model to identify the most likely direction of future migration for 15 native tree species in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, as well as the degree that landscape fragmentation might limit movement. Although projected changes in climate through to 2080 are likely to create favorable environments for range expansion of the 15 tree species by 65% on average, by limiting the potential movement by previously published migration rates and landscape fragmentation, range expansion will likely be 50%–90% of the potential. The hybrid modeling approach using distribution modeling and remotely-sensed data fills a gap between naïve and more complex approaches to take into account major impediments on the potential migration of native tree species.
Highlights
The distribution of native tree species is largely determined by climate, which needs to be favorable for seed germination, growth and, survival of a species [1]
Ritchie and MacDonald [5] determined that the spread of white spruce (Picea glauca) in western Canada was far more rapid than in the east following the last retreat of glaciers
4a–fpresence illustrate the predicted impeded by various barriers
Summary
The distribution of native tree species is largely determined by climate, which needs to be favorable for seed germination, growth and, survival of a species [1]. If conditions become less favorable, the resident species must adapt, migrate or face local extinction [2]. At the front (areas that are seeing the species colonize) of their distribution, a rise in temperature and lengthening of the growing season may facilitate colonization, assuming that the residual flora and fauna are less well adapted to the new conditions [4]. Ritchie and MacDonald [5] determined that the spread of white spruce (Picea glauca) in western Canada was far more rapid than in the east following the last retreat of glaciers. It took only about 1000 years for white spruce to spread from south-central Alberta to the MacKenzie Delta (2000 km, 2 km/year)
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