Using quantitative risk assessment in the chemical process industry

Abstract

Abstract Growing concern about the risk of major chemical accidents in the USA has led both government and industry to find new ways to identify and evaluate potential hazards. Among the most promising (and misunderstood) approaches is a collection of techniques called quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Adapted primarily from probabilistic risk assessment approaches developed in other industries, the use of QRA is spreading rapidly through the US chemical industry. Of equal importance, legislators and regulatory agencies at the state and federal level are embracing QRA as part of their proposals for mandatory accident prevention measures. The Chemical Manufactures Association (CMA) and its member companies recognized the need to provide management personnel with a guide to QRA. Chemical process industry (CPI) managers need criteria for determining when risk assessment will provide information that will aid their decision making. Executives need help in understanding and evaluating QRA results that are often inscrutable to nonexperts, and CPI managers need advice concerning how detailed an analysis must be if it is to provide adequate information for a specific decision. JBF Associates, Inc., assisted by the Process Safety Analysis Task Group of CMA, prepared A Manager's Guide to Quantitative Risk Assessment (Arendt, J.S. et al. , CMA, 1989). This paper gives an overview of the Guide and discusses important implications concerning the increasing acceptance of QRA as a chemical regulatory tool.