Using Participatory Web-based Surveillance Data to Improve Seasonal Influenza Forecasting in Italy

Abstract

Traditional surveillance of seasonal influenza is generally affected by reporting lags of at least one week and by continuous revisions of the numbers initially released. As a consequence, influenza forecasts are often limited by the time required to collect new and accurate data. On the other hand, the availability of novel data streams for disease detection can help in overcoming these issues by capturing an additional surveillance signal that can be used to complement data collected by public health agencies. In this study, we investigate how combining both traditional and participatory Web-based surveillance data can provide accurate predictions for seasonal influenza in real-time fashion. To this aim, we use two data sources available in Italy from two different monitoring systems: traditional surveillance data based on sentinel doctors reports and digital surveillance data deriving from a participatory system that monitors the influenza activity through Internet-based surveys. We integrate such digital component in a linear autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model based on traditional surveillance data and evaluate its predictive ability over the course of four influenza seasons in Italy, from 2012-2013 to 2015-2016, for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our results show that by using data extracted from a Web-based participatory surveillance system, which are usually available one week in advance with respect to traditional surveillance, it is possible to obtain accurate weekly predictions of influenza activity at national level up to four weeks in advance. Compared to a model that is only based on data from sentinel doctors, our approach significantly improves real-time forecasts of influenza activity, by increasing the Pearson's correlation up to 30% and by reducing the Mean Absolute Error up to 43% for the four weekly time horizons.