Abstract
In China, transportation accounts for a large proportion of total energy consumption and that trend is projected to increase in the future. Through the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, OLS regressions were conducted to investigate the impacts of gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization, energy intensity and transport structure on the transport energy consumption in China’s three regions. The analyses of inter-provincial panel data during the period 2006–2015 is compared to the analysis of the data from 1996 to 2005 to determine the change. There were two primary findings from this study. First, the changes of the influencing degree in three regions are considered. GDP is still the main driver of transport energy consumption in eastern region, while urbanization becomes the main driver in the other two regions. Second, the relationship between the elasticity and the value of each variable is detected. The elasticity of transport energy consumption with respect to GDP, transport structure, energy intensity and urbanization have separate positive and significant relationships. The primary measure is to optimize transport structure in the central region, while reducing energy intensity in the western region. Finally, we propose relevant policy recommendations for the three regions.
Highlights
China’s transportation industry has flourished since 2006 as a result of industrialization and urbanization
The results show that the gross domestic product is the main 2015; and and (c) evaluate evaluate the relationship between the elasticity elasticity and the the value value of of(GDP)
The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis for the period 1996–2005 was compared to the analysis of period 2006–2015 based on the panel data of 30 provinces
Summary
China’s transportation industry has flourished since 2006 as a result of industrialization and urbanization. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that from 2006 to 2015, China’s passenger-km increased by 56.6% and the freight ton-km doubled. Along with active transport activities, transport energy consumption has been rapidly increasing. Since 2010, China has surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest energy consumer [1]. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2035, the energy consumption of the world’s transportation sector will increase by 43% and China will account for more than one-third of the energy consumption [2]. The rapid increase in the transport energy consumption will result in serious energy security problems and environmental pressures in China. The energy outlook 2018 released by BP shows that oil import dependence will increase from 63% in 2016 to 72% in 2040
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