Using new models to assess probabilistic seismic hazard of the North–South Seismic Zone in China

Abstract

The North–South Seismic Zone is a well-known seismotectonic zone in China that frequently experiences major earthquakes. A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for this zone is required. In this study, we perform a new PSHA for the North–South Seismic Zone with new models, including a fault source model and a time-dependent seismicity model of major-earthquake seismogenic structures. We demonstrate that the seismic hazard in areas near faults calculated using the fault source model is higher than that calculated using the area model. Faults close to their expected recurrence time for major earthquakes have high seismic hazard. Areas of high seismic hazard in the North–South Seismic Zone between 2016 and 2065 are the Moxi Segment of the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe Fault, and the Daliangshan Fault. High-seismic-hazard areas between 2066 and 2115 are the Luhuo and Zheduotang segments of the Xianshuihe Fault and the Anninghe Fault. The Moxi Segment of the Xianshuihe Fault has the highest seismic hazard over the next 50 years.