Using neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio to predict discharge among geriatric patients with influenza infection in emergency department

Abstract

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used to predict the prognosis of various diseases, such as coronavirus disease 2019, community-acquired pneumonia, bacteremia, and endocarditis. However, NLR has never been reported to predict patient discharge in geriatric patients with influenza infection. This retrospective case-control study enrolled geriatric patients (≥65 years) with influenza virus infection who visited the emergency department of a medical center between January 01, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, influenza subtypes, outcomes, and disposition were analyzed. The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict patient discharge was determined using the Youden index. We also evaluated the accuracy of NLR in predicting patient discharge using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. The study included 409 geriatric patients in the emergency department with a mean age of 79.5 years and an approximately equal sex ratio. NLR was significantly lower in the discharged group than in the nondischarged group (5.8 ± 3.7 vs 9.7 ± 8.4). Logistic regression revealed that patients with NLR ≤ 6.5 predicted discharge with an odds ratio of 3.62. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was calculated as 0.36, and the adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.75. The negative predictive value of NLR ≤ 6.5, to predict patient discharge, was 91.8%. NLR ≤ 6.5 is a simple and easy-to-obtain laboratory tool to guide the physicians to discharge geriatric patients with influenza infection in the crowded emergency department.