Using Network Analysis and Machine Learning to Identify Virus Spread Trends in COVID-19

Abstract

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected and killed millions of people globally, resulting in a pandemic with enormous global impact. This disease affects the respiratory system, and the viral agent that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, spreads through droplets of saliva, as well as through coughing and sneezing. As an extremely transmissible viral infection, COVID-19 is causing significant damage to the economies of both developed and lower- and middle-income countries because of its direct impact on the health of citizens and the containment measures taken to curtail the virus. Methods to reduce or control the spread of the virus and protect the global population are needed to avoid further deaths, long-term health issues, and prolonged economic impact. The most effective approach to reduce viral spread and avoid a substantial collapse of the health system, in the absence of vaccines, is nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as enforcing social containment restrictions, monitoring overall population mobility, implementing widespread viral testing, and increasing hygiene measures. Our approach consists of combining network analytics with machine learning models by using a combination of anonymized health and telecommunications data to better understand the correlation between population movements and virus spread. This approach, called location network analysis (LNA), allows for accurate prediction of possible new outbreaks. It gives governments and health authorities a crucial tool that can help define more accurate public health metrics and can be used either to intensify social containment policies to avoid further spread or to ease them to reopen the economy. LNA can also help to retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of policy responses to COVID-19.