Using Mortality Data to Estimate Radiation Effects on Breast Cancer Incidence

Abstract

In this paper we combine Japanese data on radiation exposure and cancer mortality with U.S. data on cancer incidence and lethality to estimate the effects of ionizing radiation on cancer incidence. The analysis is based on the mathematical relationship between the mortality rate and the incidence and lethality rates, as well as on statistical models that relate Japanese incidence rates to U.S. incidence rates and radiation risk factors. Our approach assumes that the risk of death from causes other than the cancer does not depend on whether or not the cancer is present, and among individuals with the cancer, the risk of death attributable to the cancer is the same in Japan and the U.S. and is not affected by radiation exposure. In particular, we focus on the incidence of breast cancer in Japanese women and how this incidence is affected by radiation risk factors. The analysis uses Japanese exposure and mortality data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation study of atomic bomb survivors and U.S. incidence and lethality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry. Even without Japanese incidence data, we obtain reasonable estimates of the incidence of breast cancer in unexposed Japanese women and identify the radiation risk factors that affect this incidence. Our analysis demonstrates that the age at exposure is an important risk factor, but that the incidence of breast cancer is not affected by the city of residence (Nagasaki versus Hiroshima) or the time since exposure.