Abstract
Rainfall forecasting plays a vital role in the national economy, social development and human life. Based on Monte Carlo method, this paper uses P- III distribution function to fitting precipitation data in the past 63 years so as to forecast precipitation. Using this model to forecast the rainfall for the past ten years (2003 ~~2013) in Xi'an city, Shaanxi province, China, based on the past 63 years data. The predicted results indicate that the prediction has a high accuracy in normal rainfall year, but in extremely in dry condition and high rainfall year, the relative error is huge. So that，the method is more suitable for the prediction of rainfall in the flat water.
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